How the planning cases are calculated
Ten scoped operating cases, with observed evidence kept separate from assumptions and calculated outcomes.
Observed lending evidence
The exhibits are recomputed from official SBA 7(a) and 504 records, snapshot 30 June 2026. They describe financing in broader NAICS categories. Loan amounts do not establish opening costs, revenue, local demand or profitability. Read the definitions, exclusions and source files.
The eight newer guides show FY2023–FY2025 approval-cohort counts from the topic register: positive approved amounts with PIF, CHGOFF or EXEMPT status. Codes merge only when normalized SBA descriptions match within the same broad sector. This grouping is separate from the wider explorer’s 152 editorial categories, which have their own visible code sets. Counts are loan records, not unique borrowers or approval probabilities. HVAC’s category includes plumbing; child day care is broader than the California preschool case.
Observed, assumed and calculated figures
The cases were prepared for review on 1 October 2026. Dated supplier prices and BLS occupation benchmarks are observations with defined scope. A specification or installation manual supplies equipment context, not a verified installed price. Budget allowances, customer prices, demand, payroll offers, rent, utilities and financing are explicit assumptions. Outputs are calculations from those inputs, not trading results.
The two original pilots have six connected pages including full plan examples. Eight new formats have five guides each; their narrative plan examples are deferred. Every case uses the same checked inputs and 60-month run across its pages. No city is selected. The preschool explicitly uses a California regulatory scope and age band; it must not be generalized to other jurisdictions or programs.
Revenue and usable capacity
| Business | Sales driver | Capacity and timing |
|---|---|---|
| Coffee shop | Daily transactions × receipt | Separate team-throughput limit; normalized 30-day months. |
| Self-service wash | Bay sessions × receipt | Bay time, occupancy duration, uptime and utilization; normalized 30-day months. |
| Full-service restaurant | Seats × turns × trading days × utilization × guest receipt | Seat-turn ceiling and fixed kitchen/service roster; menu and kitchen throughput still need a real schedule. |
| Residential remodeling | Completed project-equivalents × contract value | Productive in-house crew-hours per project; subcontract cost separate. Fractional equivalents smooth a lumpy real schedule. |
| Neighborhood gym | Active members × fee plus paid training sessions | Opening members, cancellations and gross joins; target membership and peak-attendance ceiling cap growth. |
| HVAC | Service/install mix with separate prices, materials and labor | Productive technician-hours; fixed mix converted to average job-equivalents. January opening with illustrative seasons. |
| Landscape maintenance | Paid visits × price | Two-person crew time divided by on-site plus travel time. January opening and recurring seasons; one crew-hour is not two labor-hours. |
| California preschool | Whole-child enrollment × tuition | Assumed licensed places and qualified staffing steps under the selected Title 22 route. Float/relief and director separate. |
| Auto repair | Billed technician-hours × labor rate plus associated parts | Smaller of productive technician-hours and bay-hours. Owner-adviser not counted as a third mechanic. |
| Hair salon | Booked stylist-hours × realized hourly receipts | Smaller of staff/owner service-hours and chair-hours. Employee format; no chair rental or tips as sales. |
Payroll uses 52 weeks divided by 12 months. Except for membership stock, demand ramps over the first twelve months. HVAC and landscaping then repeat their specified seasons; other newer cases are flat after the ramp. Prices and costs do not inflate. Excess demand above modeled capacity is not recorded as sales. Real staffing, site, quality and scheduling constraints can reduce usable capacity further.
Demand scenarios and staffing steps
The café and wash use lower demand at 75% of base and higher demand at 115%. The eight newer cases generally use 80% and 115%. The gym applies the factors to opening members and gross joins; its lower case also adds two percentage points of monthly churn. Month one starts with assumed presold members; joins and cancellations begin in month two. Growth stops at the lower of target membership and capacity.
The preschool rounds enrollment down to whole children and recalculates staffing monthly. Its first positive cash break-even enrollment is only a local threshold: opening another classroom can return cash below zero. A staffing-step table displays the effect. Other cases retain the same paid roster across scenarios. These are sensitivities, not statistical confidence intervals.
Opening funding and accounting
Sources equal uses. Capital assets, inventory, refundable deposits and available cash are separated from preopening expenses. Capital contingency is assumed spent and capitalized at opening. Preopening expenses reduce opening retained earnings and are not deducted again from Year 1 results.
Capital assets use straight-line depreciation over 120 months with no residual value, a modeling convention rather than tax advice. Inventory equals monthly material consumption times days held divided by 30; receivables equal sales times collection days divided by 30. This normalized calculation simplifies timing, especially project work. Suppliers receive payment without trade credit. Customer deposits, payables and other hidden financing are absent.
Owner compensation, profit and cash
Each case expenses owner compensation and an employer-burden allowance. Actual legal and tax treatment depends on the entity and employment arrangements. Additional owner distributions are zero. Income and personal taxes are not calculated. Sales exclude sales tax; collection/remittance balances are omitted.
EBITDA is revenue less variable costs, paid staffing and overhead. Profit before tax also deducts depreciation and interest. Cash adds depreciation back, reflects inventory and receivables, and deducts debt principal. Accounting profit can therefore accompany falling cash.
Debt, coverage and solvency
Loans amortize monthly from opening using the assumed principal, rate and term. Interest is an expense; principal reduces debt and cash. No interest-only period, extra borrowing, refinancing, fees or balloon is assumed. Coverage is EBITDA less the increase in operating working capital, divided by principal and interest for the same period. It is not a lender-defined DSCR, required threshold or eligibility decision.
Negative cash is an unfunded requirement, not permission to overdraw. The mathematical forecast continues to expose the gap; a real business would need to change operations, obtain funding or stop before cash runs out. Base-case cash remains positive in these runs, while several lower-demand cases exhaust it.
Break-even, recovery and separate stress questions
For a fixed roster, operating break-even divides fixed costs by unit contribution. Cash break-even adds principal and interest to the numerator. These steady-month tests exclude working-capital changes and recovery of opening investment. Preschool break-even is tested at each whole-child enrollment with the corresponding staffing step.
Project recovery starts with all opening uses, including the reserve. Monthly EBITDA less working-capital investment accumulates before financing and tax. The first nonnegative cumulative month is reported. Cases that do not recover within 60 months are marked. No terminal sale, deposit release or new loan counts as a return. This differs from equity payback or owner distributions.
The newer startup guides also show three independent sensitivities: two zero-sales months with the mature roster and debt committed; 15 extra collection days at mature sales; and a loan rate two percentage points higher. These are separate calculations, not a combined revised forecast. Timing and commitments must be adapted to the actual project.
Material costs and evidence status
Every startup-cost page includes the major allowances, their retained-site or equipment scope, and the work still requiring a project quotation. Supplier item observations remain dated observations, not installed project prices. Quantity comparisons and broader fit-out references are kept separate from financial-model inputs; a different scope can expose a procurement gap without validating the existing budget. The car-wash pump observation is historical because the supplier now requires a quote without displaying a price. Non-overlapping quantity/trade schedules must resolve tax, freight, installation and payment timing before replacing assumptions.
Each case has a downloadable cost/input evidence register. Blank quotation fields mean unresolved costs, not zero. Changing a selected procurement price requires rebuilding all financial statements and scenarios, not adding item prices on top of an allowance that already includes them. The connected-statement guide shows an inspectable numeric example, while the document guide supplies a reusable evidence register.
Checks, limits and attribution
Calculations reconcile monthly profit, balance sheets, debt and cash across three scenarios; verify sources against uses; and restrict sales to capacity. Checks establish arithmetic consistency, not local demand, quote completeness, permits, lender acceptance or author credentials. Routine repairs are budgeted; major replacement, inflation, income taxes and detailed disruptions are excluded.
Updated 3 October 2026. Prepared with AI assistance under the disclosed SBA Loan editorial byline. A named reviewer and real project evidence remain necessary before adopting a case for a commercial decision. This describes the calculations, not an independent audit. Read the editorial policy or return to the business library.