Can a counter-service restaurant earn enough to repay its funding?

Build revenue from each meal period

The mix totals 180 daily requested orders and a weighted gross receipt of $15.50. With 26 trading days, gross monthly sales are $72,540; a 1.5% revenue allowance produces net sales of $71,452. Food, packaging and payment costs are still incurred for fulfilled/refunded orders, so refunds do not manufacture free ingredients. Prices exclude customer sales tax and tips.

Base demand ramps from 45.0% in the first operating month to the mature level in month 11. An illustrative January start and monthly season factors change the order of the cash pressures; these are not a verified Florida tourism series. Price and volume growth after each 12 months are assumptions. Any order beyond the separate meal-period peak-capacity limits is unserved, even when there is theoretical spare time later in the day.

Keep contribution, EBITDA and cash separate

Ingredients and production waste use 30.0% of gross menu sales. Dine-in, pickup and delivery packaging have different per-order allowances. Counter card transactions, direct online pickup and marketplace sales use separate fee bases; marketplace commissions already include processing in the selected published offer. Shift payroll is a monthly roster, not a universal cost percentage. Fees charged on tax, tips, international cards or optional promotions need an additional owner-specific budget. Square fee basis; Marketplace fee basis

EBITDA deducts food, packaging, fees, utilities, paid roster and other operating commitments. Profit before tax further deducts book depreciation and interest. Operating cash adds depreciation back and adjusts inventory, settlement receivables and payables; loan principal then reduces cash. Loan proceeds and owner equity fund month 0 rather than recurring sales. Month 0 preopening expenses are separately expensed at opening and are not recharged in operating Year 1.

Test the failure that changes the decision

Downside demand is 70.0% of base, receipts are multiplied by 98.0%, food share increases by four percentage points, packaging by a factor of 1.1, and the demand ramp is delayed by two months. Capital and preopening uses rise by a factor of 1.2 while owner equity supplies the extra opening uses. Loan interest is two percentage points above base. These changes are one coherent stress case; they are not a percentile distribution.

Upside requests more orders and a slightly higher receipt with lower food share. Sold volume remains constrained by the busiest hour of each meal period. Paid flex cook and expeditor hours start above 190 served orders per day, adding $2,936 of initial monthly loaded payroll. Scaling sales without that shift coverage would overstate profit. The downside funding gap of $343,348 is measured as the most negative balance after the initial reserve; it does not imply the owner can obtain that money.

Read one real month across the statements

The settlement stress changes card lag from two to seven days and marketplace lag from seven to fourteen. It reduces first-month cash by $4,792 with unchanged EBITDA. This is an executed timing test, not a claim about the actual processor contract. Maintain a short daily cash forecast around payroll and supplier dates because the monthly model uses a 30-day working-capital convention.

Define what is being recovered

Project recovery compares cumulative pre-income-tax operating cash before financing with the full startup uses, including reserve. It occurs in base month 30. Equity recovery compares cumulative cash after scheduled debt service with initial owner equity and occurs in base month 19. Both are economic thresholds; the model makes no distributions and leaves the cash in the business. It assumes no terminal asset sale or release of deposits to accelerate recovery.

Neither threshold is an approval standard or a guaranteed payback date. The downside reaches neither within 60 months. The model carries planned maintenance but excludes a new replacement-asset program, income taxes and owner distributions; adding those can postpone cash recovery. Treat base Year 1 coverage of 1.34x as this case’s cash available before interest divided by total debt service, not a universal lender definition.

The owner earns pay before the case earns a residual

Owner working pay is $52,000 gross annually at opening rates, included in payroll with the same assumed 16.0% load. The owner works 40 hours weekly: 24 in prep/service and 16 in management, purchasing, relief and controls. Personal income tax and take-home pay are not calculated. Remaining EBITDA is not an additional owner salary and must support debt, maintenance, taxes and cash stability.

The cook and counter rates are hiring hypotheses. Historical May 2023 Florida median hourly wages were $16.89 for restaurant cooks and $13.21 for fast-food/counter workers, but these predate the modeled opening and are not current labor offers. Obtain current candidates, payroll taxes, workers compensation and a shift plan with breaks and absence cover. Historical comparison; Employer tax components

Compare the monthly cash path

Download all scenario cash values (CSV). This educational case export is separate from the planned personalized Excel model.