Local freight trucking profitability: connect paid days to collected cash

Earn a paid day through a feasible route

Revenue is paid vehicle days multiplied by a day charge, additional stop fees and collectible waiting. At the opening price level a base day earns $902.50. Requested days start below mature utilization and follow a disclosed seasonal pattern; they are capped by downtime-adjusted truck days and qualified-driver shifts. Each day carries three deliveries and includes all return mileage. More invoices cannot create another truck or driver.

Base utilization is 82.0% of the fleet calendar before the opening ramp and seasonal factors. The model loses 6.0% of vehicle days to service/unavailability. It assumes price growth of 2.0% per model year and cost growth of 3.0%. These are explicit hypotheses, not promised demand or observed inflation forecasts.

Do not hide the paid roster in a per-mile margin

The employed driver receives $28.00 per paid hour for 176 hours a month. The working owner receives $6,000 a month for driving and administration; the model budgets up to 176 driving-shift hours plus 24 admin hours. Both are charged before EBITDA, with 16.0% budgeted employer burden. The BLS national occupational comparison is $28.19 hourly and $58,640 annually for May 2025, a broader population rather than a local wage offer. BLS scope; Employer tax guidance.

Salary and insurance remain due in quiet weeks. The initial fixed monthly commitment is $17,326. Fuel uses all mileage at $5.96 per gallon and 8.0 mpg; maintenance is $0.24 per mile plus $0.02 DEF and $8.00 daily supplies. The fuel input is a dated regional EIA observation, while truck consumption and repair spending are assumptions. Observed diesel scope.

Compare coherent operating outcomes

The lower case combines 62.0% requested mature utilization, 12.0% downtime, 40.0% empty miles, longer handling, weaker pricing and slower collections. Driver pay and insurance are retained. Its minimum cash is −$268,164; that is an unfunded deficit, not an approved credit line. The higher case uses 94.0% utilization, 3.0% downtime, denser mileage and faster collections, and reaches a $29,961 trough. Neither case assumes new trucks or free labor.

Read the five-year income, cash and debt bridge

EBITDA excludes depreciation, interest, principal and income tax. Income before income tax deducts depreciation and interest; principal does not enter that income measure. Cash change deducts full debt service and changes in receivables from EBITDA. Equipment purchase and opening borrowing occurred before Month 1. Receivables, cash, net equipment and refundable deposit tie to remaining debt plus contributed equity and retained earnings in each monthly balance.

The projection is a pass-through planning case before owner personal income tax, with owner compensation treated as a budgeted salary cost. It does not certify an election or legal payroll structure. Cash accumulates without distributions; positive year-end cash is not a dividend. Confirm tax and compensation treatment with the actual entity and rerun any entity-level taxes rather than silently treating them as included.

State the recovery basis and the near-term risk

Base cumulative post-debt operating cash first reaches the $60,250 contributed-equity amount in Month 21. The higher case reaches it in Month 9; the lower case does not reach it in 60 months. This is undiscounted equity recovery before personal income tax, with no asset sale, reserve withdrawal or replacement purchase added. It does not mean the full $180,250 project cost has been repaid to the owner.

The base trough is $7,809, not the much higher Year 5 balance. Collection stress alone can push the trough to −$22,305 without changing EBITDA. Older-truck replacement after the horizon is unmodeled; depreciation is not a funded replacement account. A lender and owner need to examine early months and maintenance exposure before accepting the recovery month.

What the owner is paid and what remains in the company

The $72,000 annual owner salary is compensation for work and is already deducted in these results. Profit belongs to the company in this calculation and is not a second salary. No distributions are assumed, especially when cash is negative. If the owner stops driving, add a paid qualified replacement and test driver coverage; if the owner drives without taking cash temporarily, record that financing support explicitly rather than calling it a better operating margin.

Compare the monthly cash path

Download all scenario cash values (CSV). This educational case export is separate from the planned personalized Excel model.