Is this food truck profitable after paying its owner?

How does the service calendar create sales?

Each order contains one bowl and expected 40.0% drink attachment. A 70.0% chicken mix at $15.00, vegetable bowls at $13.00 and drinks at $3.00 produce a $15.60 pretax receipt. Sales tax and tips are not revenue; no catering/platform sales are modeled.

Calendar weekdays generate monthly scheduled windows. Availability determines completed windows. Mature orders times opening ramp, calendar-month seasonality and later volume growth determine demand per completed window. The smaller of demand and kitchen capacity is used, and monthly sold orders are floored to whole orders.

January combines opening ramp with winter seasonality; summer can hit assembly capacity. Prices/costs increase by 3.0% / 3.0% annually from Year 2, wages by 4.0% and unseasoned demand by 2.5%. These are chosen forecast inputs, not external growth predictions.

Which costs remain when service is canceled?

Owner economic labor is nine hours per scheduled window at $29.00 an hour; assistant labor seven at $24.00. Preparation, travel between work locations, setup, service and cleanup are paid. Regular burdened payroll $489.06 remains committed when a scheduled window is canceled, as does its site fee. Food/fuel change with completed service and sold orders.

A separate helper adds paid handoff/restocking time when average orders per completed window exceed ninety, without increasing assembly capacity. Base first-year roster costs $133,649, including $68,121 owner pay. An unpaid-owner comparison would answer a different question.

Overhead includes kitchen, utilities, dry storage, parking, insurance, routine maintenance, tools/connectivity, marketing and accounting. Insurance and burden are allowances. The inspected card tier charges tax-inclusive card payments. Prepared-food tax treatment and retailing rate determine modeled state classifications. City B&O is zero under the current threshold; licensing/filing still applies. Seattle threshold.

What happens when bookings or sell-through disappoint?

Downside operational liquidity runs out in month 4. Later months are a counterfactual continuation requiring new funding or a changed operation. By month 60, bank gap would be $342,294, or $344,073 after reserving unpaid sales tax. No rescue loan or interest is silently added. This is a restructuring warning, not a recommendation to fund continuing losses.

Why can profit and the bank balance differ?

Base April has $22,168 net sales, $77 EBITDA and −$1,873 net income. Operating cash is −$2,099 after receivables, stock, tax remittance and prepaid permits. Principal $763 reduces bank cash without being an income-statement expense.

Net card receipts have withheld fees and a two-calendar-day receivable at month end. Purchases equal consumed cost plus inventory change and are paid cash on delivery. Sales tax is remitted the next month. Actual filing cadence, processor holds or supply terms could require a different reserve.

When does the owner recover invested funds?

Base cumulative cash after debt and replacement CAPEX, excluding changes in held sales tax, reaches $40,627 after sixty months against $63,010 equity. It does not recover the owner’s investment within the forecast. Upside recovers in month 23; downside does not recover within sixty months. No distributions are actually assumed.

Separate unlevered project recovery adds back interest and excludes debt principal financing. Its reserve-inclusive basis is $144,190: total opening uses less unspent CAPEX contingency. Base does not recover within sixty months; upside recovers in month 32. This convention is not equipment cost divided by EBITDA.

All cash is retained, no terminal sale assumed and debt remains after Year 5. POS replacement is paid in month 37; truck life extends past the forecast. Distribution decisions must retain seasonal cash and satisfy actual lender conditions.

How should the owner read personal income?

Owner pay compensates work; profit is the business result after that pay. Base first-year owner pay $68,121 is before personal taxes and final legal/entity treatment. Negative net income is not additional take-home money. Composite burden does not establish employment, overtime, owner-compensation or entity-tax compliance.

Track orders per completed window, cancellation, waste, paid hours per order and tax-reserved cash minimum. A full summer queue cannot automatically compensate for weak winter locations or unproductive paid preparation.

Compare the monthly cash path

Download all scenario cash values (CSV). This educational case export is separate from the planned personalized Excel model.